College Football Week 13 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:
My excruciating month of November continued for my college and pro Best Bets last weekend with another sub-par performance in both. For college, I finished 7-9-1 ATS but went to bed late Saturday night at 7-6-1 and looking to be in very good shape in all three remaining games, only to lose all of them. It’s been that kind of frustrating skid lately. With two weeks left in the regular season, it’s time to get it corrected, as I take a 102-92-5 ATS (52.6%) full-season record into this week’s slate. Here are my college football Week 13 best bets after pouring through the latest VSiN College Football Analytics Report:Purdue at Michigan State
Friday, 8:00 p.m. (FOX)With just a home date with Rutgers left on its regular season schedule, it would seem that Michigan State is all lined up to win its final two games and clinch bowl eligibility. Does that thought make you feel any more comfortable about laying 13.5 points with a team that scores just over 19 PPG? It sure doesn’t give me a warm fuzzy feeling.
In fact, if anything, the value here would seem to be on the other sideline, where Purdue actually boasts some pretty decent offensive numbers with QB Hudson Card leading the way. In terms of my effective offensive yards per play numbers, the Boilermakers are averaging 7.06 YPP, good for 44th in the country, and 0.42 better than the Spartans. That in itself makes them a reasonably good underdog. Furthermore, looking back at the recent history of this series, underdogs are 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 of the PUR-MSU series. I look for Purdue to give MSU some stress on a nationally televised Friday night contest.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Let’s take Purdue +13.5 at Michigan State
SMU at Virginia
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)For as much as Virginia has proven to be somewhat gritty lately in the underdog role, if you look at the recent schedule the Cavaliers have endured, it wouldn’t shock me to see them go down hard on Saturday against an SMU team in the fight for an ACC title and CFP appearance. Virginia has faced five very difficult games in a row, going just 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS. Typically, it would shine well on a team to just keep fighting enough to cover spreads consistently, but in this case I feel like they are at the point where being overmatched again is going to come back to bite.
My effective strength numbers show SMU currently at +31.2, and UVA at +15.4, meaning the Mustangs are 15.8 points better. The line shows single digits. Add the motivation with which SMU is playing plus this system, and I think there’s enough reason to expect a comfortable win: Ranked road teams are favored by more than 6 points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 104-12 SU and 67-46-3 ATS (59.3%) in that same Week 12 and later since 2017.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Let’s go SMU -9 in Charlottesville on Saturday
Pittsburgh at Louisville
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)How costly was the Louisville loss at Stanford last week? Well, in terms of conference or bowl implications, not bad, but to the psyche of a team that loses as such a huge favorite…that’s a different story. And it typically has a hangover effect: Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 40-67 SU and 36-67-4 ATS (35%) in the follow-up contest since 2012. Nonetheless, big-time money at DK has flowed in on the host Cardinals this week, and going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%),
At the same time, more money line bets have backed gritty Pitt in this one, and when the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). The Panthers’ recent three-game losing skid has as much to do with playing Clemson and SMU as anything else, and it seems like they may have found something last week in nearly upsetting the Tigers. I expect them to be very competitive here.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Let’s go Pitt +8 at Louisville
Wake Forest at Miami (FL)
12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)In my true home and road field articles this week, you will find some very intriguing info about this week’s matchup between Wake Forest and Miami (FL) from Coral Gables. First, you’ll see that only one team has enjoyed less home-field advantage than Miami (FL) in recent years, and that has been Charlotte. The Hurricanes have had a true HFA value of -2.7, meaning it has actually been disadvantageous for them to play at home in the last 3-1/2 seasons.
At the same time, Wake Forest is in the upper half of the country in terms of road performance, averaging over 30 PPG in their last 20 road contests. The Demon Deacons have played their best 2024 football on the road as well, going 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS. As far as historical data that supports my belief in taking these big points here, in games Week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 101-12 SU but just 45-62-2 ATS (42.1%). Miami has consistently disappointed this season against expectations. I think that continues here.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll take Wake Forest +25 on Saturday at Miami
UCF at West Virginia
3:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU)To maintain any shot of getting a bowl bid in 2024, UCF needs to win both of its remaining games, first at West Virginia and then at home against Utah. Both are winnable games, and the Knights figure to be favored to do so, but let’s be honest…this has been a horribly underachieving team this season. Why would we expect them to step up now when a bowl game is on this line? I personally don’t expect it, and I see WVU’s bowl-clinching scenario for this week being of greater prominence as they need just one win and have to go to Texas Tech next weekend.
There are also a few trends that would support my line of thinking. First, UCF (1-3 on the road) is on a 1-12 ATS skid in conference games when coming off a close of 7-points or less. Head coach Gus Malzahn’s team lost a tough 35-31 decision at ASU last Saturday. Second, UCF has lost 10 of its last 11 games ATS as a favorite in conference play. Finally, West Virginia has gone 17-11 ATS (60.7%) at home in the last four seasons. The numbers and ratings say the right team is favored, but I don’t think the mindset and motivation edges agree.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll go West Virginia as the +3 home dog to UCF
Ole Miss at Florida
12:00 p.m. ET (ABC)Florida stunned LSU this past week in Gainesville and has the chance to do the same to Ole Miss on Saturday. Do I see it happening? No way. The Rebels and Tigers are two different teams, and all of my strength ratings indicate that head coach Lane Kiffin’s team is at least 14 points superior to LSU. They are also 15 points better than Florida on my power ratings and 17.2 points better on my effective strength indicators. This game also figures to be the only thing standing in between Ole Miss and a playoff berth, assuming they don’t get into an SEC title game by chance. This team has taken a step forward this year into elite territory, and I would be incredibly surprised if they let this one slip away or even get into serious competition.
The late-season road favorite data supports this logic, as in games week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 121-30 SU and 84-64-3 ATS (56.8%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017. Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than 6 points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 104-12 SU and 67-46-3 ATS (59.3%) in that same Week 12 and later time span.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’m willing to lay 10-points on the road with a hungry Ole Miss team
Marshall at Old Dominion
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ESPNUThere are several games this week that would be considered DK Betting Splits Systems gems, where the bet percentage fits right into what I was thinking about the game anyway. Marshall has been severely underrated by oddsmakers this season, and bettors for that matter, as the Herd is 8-1-1 ATS. Even still, 90% of the money for this one is on Old Dominion at home, 2-point favorites.
Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%). Marshall is 2-0-1 ATS as an underdog in 2024, thus not a surprise that more bets are on them despite the handle disparity, 58%, in fact. When the majority Number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). Finally, the fact that bettors are getting behind Marshall on money line wagers is also a good sign, as since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a majority number of money line bets on a road underdog of +3-points or fewer, bettors are 12-8 SU (60%) for +6.04 units of profit and an ROI of 30.2%.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Let’s back Marshall (+2) to keep covering point spreads
Tulsa at South Florida
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)South Florida can clinch a bowl bid this week with a win over Tulsa, not an overwhelming challenge considering that the Bulls are laying 17.5 points. Does it feel like a team that has been a general disappointment this season is going to clinch its bowl eligibility in a resounding fashion? It doesn’t to me, and it looks quite concerning to see 91% of the handle at DK as of Wednesday in on USF. This would seem to be an over-assumption.
Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%). I have been saying for several weeks now that this USF team is just not the same without injured QB Byrum Brown, and while it was good to see the offense bust out last week in a rout of Charlotte, the 49ers were hanging by a thread at the time. Plus, Tulsa is 24-11-1 (68.6%) ATS in Road/Neutral games over the last five seasons. I think the Golden Hurricane will keep this one respectable.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Let’s go with Tulsa +17.5 versus South Florida
James Madison at Appalachian State
Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)It was about a year ago this weekend when ESPN’s College GameDay visited Harrisonburg, PA, to honor the James Madison football team for its 10-0 start. The atmosphere was electric, and the crowd was jacked for a showdown with fellow Sun Belt power Appalachian State. Well, the Mountaineers ruined things for JMU that day, walking away with a 26-23 overtime victory. Now that ASU has taken a huge step backward in 2024, do you think that game and the payback the Dukes are thirsty for means even more?
Historically, this is an ideal situation for payback as current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances, with college football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent being very successful, going 100-18 SU and 76-37-5 ATS (67.3%) since 2016. The line is just a TD for JMU, but my effective strength indicator shows the Dukes being 16 points superior this season. Add the revenge motivation to it, and we have the means for a play.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 7-point with James Madison to take out Appalachian State
Penn State at Minnesota
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)I’m not sure why it’s sticking in my mind so clearly, but still one of my biggest regret plays for this season was backing Minnesota in its trip to Rutgers, as I tried to convince myself that the Gophers were better than usual. They aren’t, and it appears for all intents and purposes that they are heading for 6-6 once again, or at max 7-5, despite the strong start.
Of course, Penn State looks no different than it has been recently either, which, for the sake of this game, could be a good thing, as the Nittany Lions have been a very reliable favorite under head coach James Franklin, going 20-7 ATS as chalk in its last 27 Big Ten tries. Of course, they still have a lot to prove, as the naysayers have definitely been out since the Ohio State loss. You could say that PSU has had a chip on its shoulder since then and is still playing with the motivation of being a CFP participant right now. A loss here or in the finale against Maryland will end those hopes. I expect a focused effort from them and see this game as a bit underpriced by my power ratings, which say it should be PSU -14.1.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 11 points with Penn State
Illinois at Rutgers
12:00 p.m. ET (PEACOCK)For a team that was generally picked in the bottom third of the Big Ten standings at the outset of the season, the only opponents standing between Illinois and what could be a pretty special 9-3 campaign are Rutgers and Northwestern. The Illini remain pretty underrated at this point, as even here, they are laying just 1 on the road to Rutgers, a team that has become known fictitiously for its grittiness as an underdog. In fact, Rutgers is actually on a 2-10 ATS skid as Big Ten home underdog and has lost seven of its last eight games ATS at home in conference play when coming off a road victory.
Obviously, both of those trends are in play for this week with the Knights coming off the upset at Maryland. There is also the late season road ranked teams system that I have relied on a lot in recent years: In games week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 121-30 SU and 84-64-3 ATS (56.8%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017. Head coach Bret Bielema’s team is better on both sides of the ball, and I don’t think the 1-point line does them justice.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 1-point with Illinois to get a big win at Rutgers
San Diego State at Utah State
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN)One game does not a season make, and I think bettors at DraftKings are seeing through the overinflated line that has accompanied Utah State after its demolishing of Hawaii last week. If you recall, that was one of my best bets, as I didn’t like the fact that Hawaii was a road favorite known for struggling in that role. Now, we have an Aggies team that doesn’t fit the bill of a home favorite that I like to get behind.
First, let’s look at the betting disparity at DK where 60% of the handle and 51% of the bets were on SDSU as of Wednesday afternoon. When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). Getting back to the 55-10 win over Hawaii for Utah State, unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams: Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 137-185-1 ATS (42.5%) over the last decade-plus. This is also a revenge game for the Aztecs, as they lost 32-24 to a bowl-bound Aggies team a year ago, and revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes: Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 216-172 ATS (55.7%) since 2016.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I like San Diego State as the 4-point dog at Utah State
